Way Too Early College Basketball Top-25 Rankings

Come on, you really thought you’d get rid of me already? We still have recaps of this season, the coaching carousel, recruiting, NBA Draft previews and breakdowns plus some other things in the works. Today though, we’re going to look ahead and create an argument, because, well, everyone is doing it and why not? I was asked this on Twitter:

Now obviously we don’t have the rosters set in stone yet and there is still a ton of movement. However, I feel confident in talking to people about some projections in terms of NBA Draft and early departures that we can make some educated guesses here. Plus, I just really missed people being pissed off at me for ranking their team too low or their rival too high because that’s just way too fun. So without any more hesitation, the 2018-19 way too early top-25 rankings.

1. Villanova
For sure leaving: None
For sure adding: Jahvon Quinerly, Cole Swider, Brandon Slater
Projected returning: Donte DiVincenzo, Phil Booth, Eric Paschall, Jermaine Samuels, Collin Gillespie, Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree

What’s better than winning a title and being one of the favorites to do it again next year? That’s what Villanova will be whether Omari Spellman returns or not. Everyone is confident that Bridges and Brunson are both gone to the NBA, but the big question is Spellman. Based on everything, he’s going to test the waters. Offensively he’s ready to play at the next level, the question is perimeter defense, something that he improved on as the season went on. Even with Spellman gone you have 3 go-to guys, plus three top-50 recruits coming in.

2. Duke
For sure leaving: Marvin Bagley, Grayson Allen
For sure adding: RJ Barrett, Tre Jones, Cam Reddish, Zion Williamson
Projected returning: Marques Bolden, Gary Trent, Alex O’Connell, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White

This Duke team is going to be really interesting to watch, simply because K is going to have to adjust again. Their best lineup is going to be playing true small ball with Jones/Reddish/Barrett/Williamson/Trent. The question is can he commit to that? K prefers having a traditional big out there and he won’t have that unless Bolden is playing or they get EJ Montgomery. Cam Reddish is going to end up being the best player in the class of 2018 though.

3. Kansas
For sure leaving: Devonte’ Graham, Svi Mykkhailiuk
For sure adding: Dedric Lawson, KJ Lawson, Charlie Moore, Quentin Grimes, Devon Dotson, David McCormack
Projected returning: Udoka Azubuike, Lagerald Vick, Marcus Garrett, Silvio De Sousa, Mitch Lightfoot, Sam Cunliffe

Kansas is going to look like transfer U next season with the Lawson brothers and Charlie Moore. It’s also pretty crazy just how damn talented this team will be despite losing three starters and one of the Kansas legends in Devonte’ Graham. I do think Malik Newman takes advantage of the big time run he had over the last month and turns it into being drafted, so that opens up some space. The guy that Self and Kansas fans are going to love though is David McCormack. He’s the type of big that Self thrives with.

4. Kentucky
For sure leaving: None
For sure adding: Keldon Johnson, Immanuel Quickley, Tyler Herro
Projected returning: Jarred Vanderbilt, PJ Washington, Quade Green, Wenyen Gabirel, Sacha Kileya-Jones, Nick Richards, Jermal Baker

This is going to be a different look for Kentucky. The guys they recruited bring in a shooting dynamic and they are going to have two of them in Herro and Baker. Now, we don’t know who is coming back for sure yet, and there are some weird reports out there about Knox and SGA. Apparently Knox is torn on whether to leave or not and SGA pushed his announcement back a week. I still think both leave along with Hami Diallo. There’s also going to be plenty of experience on this Kentucky team.

5. Auburn
For sure leaving: Davion Mitchell
For sure adding: Samir Doughty
Projected returning: Bryce Brown, Mustapha Heron, Jared Harper, Danjel Purifoy, Austin Wiley, DeSean Murray, Chuma Okeke, Anfernee McElmore

The team that won the SEC regular season is going to return pretty much everyone assuming Purifoy and Wiley don’t leave for the NBA. The key here is getting McElmore back from injury and everyone keeping the same mentality from this year. What made Auburn so good is they were selfless on the offensive side of the ball. They looked for the extra pass and everyone played within the rhythm of the game. This team should be loaded next year.

6. Nevada
For sure leaving: Kendall Stephens, Elijah Foster, Hallice Cooke
For sure adding: Tre’Shawn Thurman, Corey Henson, Jazz Johnson, Nisre Zouzoua, Kwame Hymes, Vince Lee
Projected returning: Caleb Martin, Cody Martin, Jordan Caroline, Lindsey Drew, Josh Hall

I absolutely loved this team this year and think they are going to be that much better next year. Looking at the Martin twins and Caroline, they can improve stock simply because the 2019 draft should be a little bit weaker, especially from a point guard stanpoint. Martin can get lost in that group of Holiday/Brunson/Shamet/Carter/Graham, etc. Remember all the guys they are adding (except for two) are transfers, meaning they were around the program for a year and will fill in with ease. There’s also more depth to next year’s team.

7. Gonzaga
For sure leaving: Johnathan Williams, Silas Melson
For sure adding: Brandon Clarke, Filip Petrusev, Greg Foster Jr
Projected returning: Rui Hachimura, Josh Perkins, Zach Norvell, Killian Tillie, Corey Kispert, Jacob Larsen

If Gonzaga gets Hachimura and Tillie back next year, they are going to just continue to be what they are. That’s a dominant program that should be a favorite to make the second weekend every year. Both guys have potential to be future pros, Tillie especially. What I do like though is the growth of Norvell. We saw him hit some big shots in the first two NCAA Tournament games and think he’ll be the one that takes a huge step next year.

8. Tennessee
For sure leaving: James Daniel
For sure adding: None
Projected returning: Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, Jordan Bowden, Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bone, John Fulkerson, Kyle Alexander, Yves Pons

Tennessee doesn’t have to add anyone because it returns quite literally everyone. You’re going to see them do what they did this year and that’s hustle their ass off and play through Williams and Schofield. Williams is the reigning SEC Player of the Year and has the unique build to him where he’s undersized but knows how to get position so well. It wouldn’t shock me if Tennessee spends some time next year ranked as the No. 1 team in the country.

9. Louisville
For sure leaving: Anas Mahmoud, Quentin Snider, Ray Spalding
For sure adding: Stephen Enoch
Projected returning: VJ King, Deng Adel,  Darius Perry, Ryan McMahon, Jordan Nwora, Malik Williams, Dwayne Sutton, Lance Thomas

Part of this is the Chris Mack effect and part of this is Louisville will finally get to play with a clear mind this year. I think David Padgett did a really good job given the circumstances, but you have to believe everything going on weighed on these kids a year ago. Mack is one of the 15 best coaches in America and comes in with a pretty deep rotation. Ray Spalding had a chance to be first-team All-ACC next year but just announced he’s signing with an agent.

10. Virginia Tech
For sure leaving: Devin Wilson, Justin Bibbs
For sure adding: Landers Nolley, Jarren McAllister, Jon Kabongo
Projected returning: Chris Clarke, Kerry Blackshear, Justin Robinson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Ty Outlaw, Ahmed Hill, Tyrie Jackson

Here comes Buzz Williams. He gets to return seven of his top guys and gets back Ty Outlaw, who missed the season due to injury. The biggest thing here is going to be can Alexander-Walker be that potential first round pick so many people see in him? They get a top-60 guy in Nolley and we know that Buzz will have them ready to go. This is a program that keeps getting better year after year with him.

11. Virginia
For sure leaving: Devon Hall, Isaiah Wilkins, Nigel Johnson
For sure adding: Kody Stattmann, Kihei Clark
Projected returning: Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, Jack Salt, De’Andre Hunter, Jay Huff, Mamadi Diakite

Despite the loss to UMBC, I’m still buying into the new rule that you have to have a Tony Bennett coached team in the preseason top-25. It’s just how it is. That said, De’Andre Hunter is the guy that everyone is talking about and can be the star of this team. He was a top-100 guy that picked Virginia over Villanova and was perfecting his sixth man role before getting hurt right before the NCAA Tournament. He’s going to be the most athletic guy on the roster and can take advantage of mismatches. They return experience in the backcourt with Guy and Jerome and their low post guy in Salt.

12. Kansas State
For sure leaving: None
For sure adding: Shaun Williams
Projected returning: Dean Wade, Barry Brown, Cartier Diarra, Kamau Stokes, Xavier Sneed, Makol Mawien, Mike McGuirl, Levi Stockard, Mawdo Sallah

This may be the team that everyone thinks is ranked too high, similar to a Northwestern type feel from last year. They got hot late, but at the same time, they were also fourth in the Big 12. They return everyone, including a first league guy in Dean Wade. Throw in that defense with Brown and Diarra plus all the depth and that’s how you get Kansas State at 12.

13. Oregon
For sure leaving: Elijah Brown, MiKyle McIntosh
For sure adding: Bol Bol, Louis King, Will Richardson, Miles Norris
Projected returning: Paul White, Kenny Wooten, Peyton Pritchard, Keith Smith, MJ Cage, Victor Bailey, Abu Kigab

Oregon was a bit of disappointing team to me this year, but expectations are back after just one year removed from a Final Four. That’s what happens when you land four top-60 recruits including two top-20 guys in Bol and King. Wooten is one of the best defenders in the country and Pritchard is just a steady hand in the backcourt. I think you see this team come together a lot quicker than we saw the 2017-18 version. There’s a chance Troy Brown can still come back too. If that happens, Oregon is a top-10 team for me.

14. Florida State
For sure leaving: Braian Angola, CJ Walker, Brandon Allen
For sure adding: Devin Vassell
Projected returning: Trent Forrest, M.J. Walker, Terance Mann, Mfiondu Kabengele, Phil Cofer, PJ Savoy, Christ Koumadje, Anthony Polite

It was kind of shocking to see CJ Walker announce his decision to transfer and quite honestly that cost them a top-10 spot for me here in the preseason. What they do have though is a bunch of wings that can break you down. We saw what they did in the NCAA Tournament and that group of Walker/Mann/Cofer/Savoy is a group I really like. Throw in the size and rim protection and this could be another Elite Eight trip.

15. Michigan
For sure leaving: Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Duncan Robinson, Jaaron Simmons
For sure adding: Ignas Bradzeikis, Brandon Johns, Colin Castleton, Adrien Nunez, David DeJulius
Projected returning: Zavier Simpson, Charles Matthews, Jon Teske, Jordan Poole, Isaiah Livers, Ibi Watson, Eli Brooks

This is probably the highest you’ll see Michigan if Wagner doesn’t come back, but that’s because I’m sold on Teske stepping in at the five spot and also just John Beilein being that damn good. Yes, they lose three rotation players, but they still have two point guards in Brooks/Simpson. I think Matthews takes yet another step next year and Poole turns into a big time scorer. This should actually be another year of a top-10 defensive team as well. If Wagner comes back they may be top-5.

16. Michigan State
For sure leaving: Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges, Ben Carter, Tum Tum Nairn, Gavin Schilling
For sure adding: Foster Loyer, Marcus Bingham, Gabe Brown, Aaron Henry, Thomas Kithier
Projected returning: Cassius Winston, Joshua Langford, Matt McQuaid, Xavier Tillman, Kenny Goins, Nick Ward

It’s going to be another weird year in terms of roster fit for Michigan State. They do have the backcourt set of Winston and Langford, but the question is going to be what do you do with that third spot. Do you play McQuaid there? Do you play three bigs? Do you play Loyer and go small? Do you play Brown and go big but still have a shooter? That’s going to be the point of intrigue for me. However, Winston is good enough to be a contender for preseason Big 10 Player of the Year and they have depth to the roster.

17. Mississippi State
For sure leaving: None
For sure adding: Reggie Perry, Robert Woodard, D.J. Stewart, Jethro Tshimsumpa
Projected returning: Nick Weatherspoon, Quindarry Weatherspoon, Lamar Peters, Aric Holman, Abdul Ado, Eli Wright, Xavian Stapleton

Ben Howland has his best team at Mississippi State and there’s some real star potential when you look at Weatherspoon brothers, Peters and Reggie Perry. Perry is a top-20 recruit while Woodard is No. 53. They’ll be able to beat you from a couple different ways and Howland is returning a top-40 defense. That number should shoot up to a top-30 defense with the addition of a guy like Perry.

18. North Carolina
For sure leaving: Joel Berry, Theo Pinson
For sure adding: Nassir Little, Coby White, Rechon Black
Projected returning: Luke Maye, Garrison Brooks, Sterling Manley, Brandon Robinson, Kenny Williams, Cam Johnson, Andrew Platek

I really like the duo of Cam Johnson and Nassir Little for next year. However, how do you replace two guys like Berry and Pinson? The real question is going to be can Coby White, who isn’t your prototypical point guard, handle that spot as a freshman? If he’s able to run that secondary transition correctly, they’ll be fine because Little/Johnson are that good. Throw in Maye coming back and he’ll be a favorite for preseason ACC Player of the Year.

19. Maryland
For sure leaving: Justin Jackson, Jared Nickens, Michal Cekovsky, Sean Obi, Dion Wiley
For sure adding: Aaron Wiggins, Jalen Smith, Schnider Herard, Eric Ayala
Projected returning: Bruno Fernando, Kevin Huerter, Anthony Cowan, Darryl Morsell, Ivan Bender

Maryland was wildly disappointing this past season and Maryland fans are starting to get annoyed with Turgeon’s inability to seemingly develop the sort of talent that has come through College Park. That said, this team, despite losing Justin Jackson has really nice pieces. You have a three to build around in Huerter, Cowan and Fernando. From there plugging a top-25 recruit in Smith and a top-50 guy in Wiggins is perfect.

20. UCLA
For sure leaving: Aaron Holiday, Thomas Welsh, GG Golomon
For sure adding: Shareef O’Neal, Moses Brown, Tyger Campbell, David Singleton, Jules Bernard, Kenny Nwuba, Cody Riley, Jalen Hill
Projected returning: Kris Wilkes, Jaylen Hands, Prince Ali, Chris Smith

UCLA has an absolutely loaded recruiting class coming in headlined by two bigs in Brown and O’Neal. Pairing them with the two big names from last year in Wilkes and Hands and you can see why people are high on UCLA again. Yes, they lose Aaron Holiday, but they add so much depth to this roster that Alford should be okay here.

21. LSU
For sure leaving: Duop Reath, Aaron Epps, Randy Onwuasor, Jeremy Combs, Mayan Kiir, Galen Alexander
For sure adding: Kavell Bigby-Williams, Emmitt Williams, Naz Reid, Darius Days, JaVonte Smart
Projected returning: Tremont Waters, Skylar Mays, Brandon Sampson, Daryl Edwards, Wayde Sims, Brandon Rachal

You need to know the name Tremont Waters if you don’t already. The diminutive point guard was one of the better freshmen this past year and he can absolutely beat teams by himself. Giving him a weapon like Naz Reid (McDonald’s All-American) another year with Mays and Sampson and a guy in Bigby-Williams that can protect the rim and LSU is a top-25 team.

22. West Virginia
For sure leaving: Jevon Carter, Daxter Miles, D’Angelo Hunter
For sure adding: Derek Culver, Jordan McCabe, Trey Doomes, Andrew Gordon
Projected returning: Esa Ahmad, Sagaba Konate, Teddy Allen, Lamont West, James Bolden, Wesley Harris, Maciej Bender, Logan Routt, Brandon Knapper, Chase Harler

I know it seems like there should be a huge dropoff in expectations because you lose one of the best players to ever go to West Virginia, but here’s where we are. The Mountaineers have an elite defender in Konate, who was arguably the most improved player ni the country. Allen can score in bunches when he’s on the court. They still have a plethora of guards. Press Virginia will still be a thing.

23. Xavier
For sure leaving: Chris Mack, Trevon Bluiett, JP Macura, Karem Kanter, Sean O’Mara
For sure adding: Keonte Kennedy, Dontarius James, Jake Walker
Projected returning: Quentin Goodin, Paul Scruggs, Naji Marshall, Kaiser Gates, Tyrique Jones, Elias Harden

Despite losing Mack and arguably the best player in school history, the cupboard isn’t bare for Travis Steele. The backcorut of Goodin/Scruggs/Marshall could be one of the better ones in the Big East, especially if Marshall and Goodin continue to shoot the way they did to close the season. Look for Xavier to add a grad transfer or two as well.

24. TCU
For sure leaving: Kenrich Williams, Ahmed Hamdy, Vlad Brodziansky
For sure adding: Angus McWilliam, Yuat Alok, Russel Barlow Jr., Kaden Archie, Kendric Davis
Projected returning: Jaylen Fisher, Alex Robinson, JD Miller, Kouat Noi, Desmond Bane, Kevin Samuel, Lat Mayen, Shawn Olden, R.J. Nembhard, Angus McWilliam

Jamie Dixon has this thing really starting to roll down there at TCU. More importantly he gets back Jaylen Fisher from injury as the point guard is one of the best point guards in the Big 12. Pairing him with Robinson in the backcourt and it makes it damn tough to press them. I like the depth of this roster and it will make up fo rthe loss of Brodziansky and Williams.

25. USC
For sure leaving: Chime Metu, Jordan McLaughlin, Elijah Stewart
For sure adding:  Kevin Porter, Elijah Weaver, J’Raan Brooks
Projected returning: Jonah Matthews, Bennie Boatwright, Charles O’Bannon Jr., Shaqquan Aaron, Nick Rakocevic, Derryck Thornton

This was a team that felt like a snub from the NCAA Tournament and adds some nice pieces here to a core that should bounce back. The key is going to be if Boatwright returns to school or not. If he returns that’s their go-to guy. There are still some questions when it comes to point guard play though.